Simulation of Defense Supply Chain Resilience Strategies Using Wargaming Scenarios: Analysis and Evaluation

Authors

1 Ph.D. in Strategic Defense Sciences – Research Institute of Logistics, Defense Technology and Emerging Fields – Supreme National Defense University – Tehran, Iran

2 Ph.D. in Mathematics – Research Institute of Logistics, Defense Technology and Emerging Fields – Supreme National Defense University – Tehran, Iran

3 Ph.D. Candidate – Faculty of Mathematics and Computer Science – Shahid Baher University of Ahvaz – Kerman, Iran

Abstract

The resilience of the defense supply chain, as one of the key factors in safeguarding national security and sustaining the operational capability of armed forces, is of paramount importance. Given the wide range of threats faced by defense supply chains, this study examines and evaluates the resilience of the defense supply chain through simulation and wargaming scenarios. In this research, the R software and the Simmer simulation tool were employed to model the defense supply chain, encompassing suppliers, manufacturers, warehouses, and transportation. Various scenarios—including cyberattacks, logistics delays, equipment failures, physical threats, natural crises, economic sanctions, and sudden changes in demand—were defined and simulated in order to assess the resilience of the chain. The simulation results indicate that economic sanctions exert the most significant impact on the resilience of the defense supply chain and can seriously disrupt the procurement of raw materials and critical components. Equipment failures and logistics delays were also identified as major threats that could reduce efficiency and cause disruptions in supply chain processes. Other threats, such as cyberattacks and physical threats, were found to be significant due to their indirect effects on the infrastructure and operations of the supply chain. This study demonstrates that through the adoption of targeted strategies—such as diversification of supply sources, optimization of transportation routes, strengthening of cybersecurity infrastructure, and preventive equipment maintenance—the resilience of the defense supply chain can be considerably enhanced, thereby mitigating the destructive consequences of critical threats. The findings can assist decision-makers in adopting effective policies and strategies aimed at improving the resilience of defense supply chains.

Keywords

strategic Discourse Quarterly
Volume 2, Issue 5 - Serial Number 5
VOLUME II. No. V. SUMMER 2025
August 2025
Pages 107-131

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