Geopolitical Realignment, Economic Dependency, Belt and Road Initiative, Sanctions Evasion, Regional Infrastructure
Abstract
The Ukrainian crisis has triggered a realignment of geopolitical forces in Central Asia, highlighting Russia’s entrenched regional grip and China’s emerging ambitions. Despite efforts by Central Asian nations to maintain balanced foreign relations, they face increasing dependency on Moscow through economic entanglements like labor migration, transit corridors, and infrastructure projects. Simultaneously, China is leveraging its Belt and Road Initiative and regional summits to establish a stronger foothold—though primarily economic, with limited political assertiveness so far. The waning influence of the US and EU has accelerated the pivot toward a dual structure dominated by Russia and China. While this dynamic opens new avenues for development and investment, it also raises concerns over diminished sovereignty, economic vulnerability, and complicity in sanctions evasion. Iran's growing role as a transit hub further embeds the region in emerging non-Western networks. The crisis catalyzes both opportunity and instability, compelling Central Asia to navigate a tense and shifting global landscape.
)